Trade Idea – Foot Locker

The negative environment related to traditional US department store titans has already been mentioned in the previous post. In case of Foot Locker the shares are under heavy pressure on the news Nike – its most important partner – might team up with Amazon. Needless to say, this would be very disruptive for FL which operates more than 3000 footwear stores globally.

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Historical share price performance of Foot Locker (USD), source: Yahoo Finance

Based on this significant share price decrease, this company seems to have the lowest RSI level currently with relatively high number of buy recommendations. In my opinion it is worth to try it on for some days at least 🙂

On 21 June 2017 long position has been opened at USD 45.4 and on the same trading day I closed it at USD 46.98. The realized 1-day return before any taxes and fees is 3.48%.

Trade Idea – Tractor Supply Company

As we all know from Ocean’s trilogy, playing a story once again is probably not the best. In case of Tractor Supply Co. this feeling has been underlined by different segment and company specific factors as well:

  • The outlook of the classic US retail players have been weakened mainly due to the increasing dominance of e-commerce business models. Year-to-date number on retail store closures is already outpacing that of 2008 (year of latest recession in the States) and appr. 2,880 have been announced so far this year according to Credit Suisse.
  • TSCO’s share price dropped significantly and its valuation (and its expected dividend yield) is far more expensive compared to its peers.

 

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Historical share price performance of Tractor Supply Company, source: Yahoo Finance

 

On the other hand the low-debt company could offer some locked in potential. Based on the analysts’ consensus the long-term growth prospects remain roboust despite the disappointing quarterly performance and the 12m projected share price might offer more than 20% return.

Considering all these pros and cons a new long position in TSCO has been opened at USD 53 on 24 May 2017.

Trade Idea – Macy’s

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On 9 January 2017 long position opened in Macy’s at USD 30.52.

The share price of Macy’s – one of the biggest retailer in the US and has appr. USD 10 bn market cap – decreased significantly after the CEO anticipated that sales values would be stronger (especially the watches and handbags segments delivered weak results). The envisaged OPEX cut initiatives are expected to result in more than half billion USD savings per year.

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Historical share price development of Macy’s (USD), source: Yahoo Finance

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Historical profitability metrics (mn USD), source: company reports

Key investment considerations:

  • the falling share price pushed the RSI into the oversold territory from technical perspective
  • current fundamental trends seem to be disadvantageous, however majority of the analysts maintained buy or hold recommendation in respect to the stock
  • over 4% expected dividend yield

Backtesting 2015/2016

As the beginning of 2017 approaches majority of the people start summarizing the notable events that are important to them. For example there are dozens of rankings about movies, surprising sport events and famous people. The financial professionals select the top stories of this year from the global investment universe and traders calculate their individual performance hoping for nice bonus levels.

Similar to these in this post I collected the realized outcomes and the currently unrealized values of my recent trade ideas. Thanks to the conservative investment policy I follow all of the initiated positions resulted in a profit. On the other hand the 1-2% holding period returns were often due to the strict stop loss limits. The biggest gain was generated by the Pernod Ricard position (16% over the holding period, 73% in annualized terms).

Additionally the currently unrealized Aegon shares in the portfolio are performing really nicely as well.

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The highlighted holding period returns are not annualized and are generated from long positions in the equities and do not contain dividend returns received over the holding period. All return values are before fees and taxes.